Oscars® 2025

Here are the 2025 Annual Academy Awards^® nominees and my predictions. For the Best Picture nominees, you can click on the film’s name to read my review on Letterboxd.com. The Academy Awards will be held on 2 March 2025.

* Note: This post will be updated after the event to include the eventual winners.

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Best Picture

The Best Picture race at the 2025 Oscars is shaping up to be a tight contest, with The Brutalist emerging as the front-runner after winning Best Picture (Drama) at the Golden Globes and Best Film at the BAFTAs. Its dominance in the Best Director and Best Actor categories further solidifies its momentum. However, Conclave remains a strong contender, having won Best Film at the BAFTAs and Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards, indicating strong industry support. While Emilia Pérez took Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) at the Golden Globes, it seems less likely to win the top prize. If the Academy leans toward a more ensemble-driven film, Conclave could pull off an upset, but for now, The Brutalist is the one to beat.

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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Best Actor race is shaping up to be a battle between Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown). Brody has dominated this awards season, winning Best Actor at the Golden Globes (Drama), BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards, making him the clear front-runner. However, Chalamet took home the SAG Award, which is often a strong indicator of Oscar success, as actors make up the largest voting branch of the Academy. While Brody’s transformative performance in The Brutalist has received widespread acclaim, the Academy may lean toward Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan, especially if the film gains late momentum. For now, Brody remains the likely winner, but a Chalamet upset wouldn’t be shocking.

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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Best Actress race is one of the more unpredictable categories this year. Demi Moore (The Substance) is the front-runner after winning the Golden Globe (Musical/Comedy), SAG Award, and Critics’ Choice Award, making her the leading contender. However, Mikey Madison (Anora) took home the BAFTA, and the Academy has a history of favouring BAFTA winners in this category. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), who won the Golden Globe (Drama), is also a dark horse, though she hasn’t gained as much momentum in other major awards. Moore’s comeback narrative and industry support give her the edge, but if voters lean toward a younger, breakthrough performance, Madison could pull off an upset.

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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Best Supporting Actor category looks like a near-lock for Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), who has swept the season, winning at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards. His performance has been widely praised, and with wins from all major voting bodies, it’s hard to see anyone else taking the Oscar.

If an upset were to happen, the most likely contender would be Yura Borisov (Anora), who delivered a standout performance as the sympathetic goon. However, with Culkin’s near-perfect run, this category seems all but decided. Expect to hear his name called on Oscar night.

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ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Best Supporting Actress category looks just as locked in as Supporting Actor, with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) sweeping the major awards this season. She has won at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards, making her the overwhelming favourite for the Oscar. Her performance has been praised for its emotional depth, and with this level of momentum, it’s hard to see the Academy going in a different direction.

If there’s any potential for an upset, it could come from Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), but given Saldaña’s dominance, an upset would be a major shock. Expect her to complete the awards season sweep with an Oscar win.

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DIRECTING

The Best Director category seems to be firmly in Brady Corbet’s (The Brutalist) hands. He has won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice Award for directing, making him the clear front-runner heading into the Oscars. His commanding vision and storytelling have been widely praised, and with such a strong showing across major awards, it’s hard to see him losing.

The only real challenger is Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), who directed one of the most unique films of the season. If the Academy leans toward rewarding bold, genre-blending filmmaking, he could pull off an upset. However, with Corbet’s near-clean sweep, his win seems all but inevitable.

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Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar is looking like a strong win for Peter Straughan (Conclave), who has already picked up major wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. His adaptation of Robert Harris’ novel about the Vatican’s secretive papal election has been praised for its tightly woven tension, political intrigue, and sharp dialogue.

If there’s an upset, it could come from Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch (Anora), as the film has gained momentum in other categories, including Best Picture and Best Actress. However, with Straughan’s consistent recognition this season, he remains the clear front-runner for the Oscar.

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Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Best Original Screenplay Oscar is shaping up to be a likely win for Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold (The Brutalist), who took home the BAFTA in this category. The film’s layered storytelling, historical depth, and intricate character development have been widely praised, making it a strong contender for the Academy’s top writing prize.

However, a potential upset could come from Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), as his screenplay has been well-received for its mix of humour, emotional depth, and exploration of grief. If the Academy leans toward a more personal, character-driven script, Eisenberg could have a shot. That said, with The Brutalist leading in multiple major categories, Corbet & Fastvold remain the favourites to take home the Oscar.

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Animated Feature Film

The Best Animated Feature Oscar is shaping up to be a close race, but The Wild Robot looks like the front-runner. With its visually distinct animation, emotionally rich storytelling, and growing critical acclaim, it has the momentum to take the win. While Inside Out 2 has Pixar’s legacy and strong box office numbers behind it, it hasn’t generated the same awards-season buzz as some of Pixar’s past winners. If The Wild Robot secures the Oscar, it would mark a shift toward more original and artistically ambitious animated films rather than the usual dominance of Pixar and Disney. While Inside Out 2 remains a contender, The Wild Robot now seems poised to take the gold.

Nick Park has an unbeatable track record at the Oscars, having won every time he’s been nominated—except when competing against himself. With four wins in Best Animated Short Film and one in Best Animated Feature, he is one of the Academy’s most reliable favourites when it comes to stop-motion animation. However, The Wild Robot or Inside Out 2 would probably beat him this year.

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Animated Short Film

The Best Animated Short Film category is always one of the more unpredictable races, often favouring unique storytelling and bold visual styles over mainstream appeal. Among this year’s nominees, Wander to Wonder has emerged as a strong contender, with its visually striking animation and surreal, dreamlike narrative giving it an edge. However, In the Shadow of the Cypress, with its emotionally resonant themes and intricate animation, could pose serious competition. Magic Candies, adapted from a beloved Korean children’s book, also has the potential to surprise if voters lean toward a more heartfelt, accessible story.

Given the Academy’s history of recognising inventive animation techniques, this race remains wide open. While Wander to Wonder might have a slight edge, any of these nominees could take home the Oscar, making this category one to watch.

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Cinematography

The Best Cinematography Oscar looks set to go to The Brutalist, which has been widely praised for its striking black-and-white visuals and architectural compositions that perfectly complement its story. With BAFTA and Critics’ Choice wins, its cinematography has been a major talking point throughout awards season, making it the front-runner.

However, a potential challenge could come from Dune: Part Two, which, like its predecessor, delivers stunning, large-scale sci-fi visuals that could sway Academy voters looking for technical spectacle. While The Brutalist has the artistic edge, Dune: Part Two’s grand visual storytelling could lead to an upset, especially if voters lean toward a bigger, effects-heavy production. That said, the poetic and meticulously crafted cinematography of The Brutalist still makes it the one to beat.

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Costume Design

The Best Costume Design Oscar is shaping up to be a strong win for Wicked, which has dazzled audiences with its elaborate, theatrical costumes that bring the fantasy world of Oz to life. Given the film’s faithfulness to its West End and Broadway origins, its vibrant and meticulously designed outfits are a standout element, making it the front-runner in this category.

However, a potential challenger is A Complete Unknown, which showcases a wide range of period-accurate costumes spanning Bob Dylan’s rise to fame. If the Academy favours historically grounded design over fantasy, this could pose an upset. That said, with Wicked’s bold, magical aesthetic and strong production values, it remains the likely winner.

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Film Editing

The Best Film Editing Oscar is looking like a tight race, but Anora currently holds the edge. The film’s fast-paced, kinetic editing has been widely praised, keeping its high-energy narrative engaging while maintaining a sharp focus on its characters. With its mix of chaotic moments and carefully structured sequences, it stands out as the likely winner.

A possible challenger is The Brutalist, which uses its precise, measured editing style to complement its stark cinematography and methodical storytelling. If voters lean toward a more controlled, artistic approach rather than high-energy cutting, The Brutalist could pull an upset. However, given the Academy’s tendency to reward dynamic, rhythmically edited films, Anora remains the front-runner in this category.

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Makeup and Hairstyling

The Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar is heavily favoured to go to The Substance, which has gained attention for its striking and unsettling use of prosthetics and body horror effects, transforming its characters in ways that push the boundaries of practical effects. The film’s bold and grotesque approach makes it the front-runner. However, Wicked could be a strong challenger, with its vibrant, theatrical makeup and hairstyling bringing the world of Oz to life. If voters lean toward spectacle and fantasy rather than extreme transformation, Wicked could pose a threat—but for now, The Substance remains the likely winner.

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Music (Original Score)

The Best Original Score Oscar is shaping up to be a tight race, but Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist) appears to have the edge. His haunting, atmospheric score has been praised for complementing the film’s stark black-and-white visuals and emotional weight. Having already won the BAFTA, The Brutalist stands as the front-runner, particularly given the film’s overall strength this awards season.

A potential challenger is Volker Bertelmann (Conclave), whose work adds tension and intrigue to the film’s secretive Vatican setting. Given that Bertelmann previously won for All Quiet on the Western Front, he could be a strong contender if voters lean toward a more traditionally dramatic score.

Emilia Pérez also has an outside shot, as its music-driven storytelling makes the score a central element of the film. However, unless voters prioritise the musical aspect, The Brutalist remains the likely winner.

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Music (Original Song)

The Best Original Song race at the 2025 Oscars is shaping up to be a competitive one, with Emilia Pérez securing two nominations—“El Mal” and “Mi Camino”—making it the only film with multiple contenders. “El Mal” is the front-runner after winning the Golden Globe, and with Emilia Pérez being one of the most talked-about films of the season, it has strong momentum. However, Diane Warren’s “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight) could pose a challenge, as Warren is a longtime Academy favourite with multiple nominations to her name. Elton John’s “Never Too Late”, co-written with Brandi Carlile and Bernie Taupin, also brings serious industry clout and could sway voters looking for a legendary name in the category. “Like a Bird” (Sing Sing) is another potential dark horse, offering a soulful, emotional alternative. While Emilia Pérez has the advantage, this category is known for surprises, and an upset remains possible.

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Production Design

The Best Production Design Oscar is shaping up to be a contest between Wicked and The Brutalist. Wicked is the front-runner, with its lavish, theatrical sets that bring the magical world of Oz to life, staying true to its Broadway origins while expanding into a grand cinematic scale. The film’s vibrant, fantastical design makes it the most visually striking nominee, and musicals often perform well in this category when they embrace spectacle.

However, The Brutalist is a strong contender, with its meticulously crafted, architecturally precise environments that reflect the film’s stark, historical aesthetic. The film’s use of space and composition has been widely praised, and if voters prefer a more restrained, artistic approach, it could pull off an upset.

Other contenders like Conclave, with its Vatican-inspired settings, add historical grandeur to the mix, but this race seems to be between Wicked’s dazzling fantasy world and The Brutalist’s controlled, minimalist precision. Given the Academy’s tendency to favour bold, immersive world-building, Wicked remains the favourite, though The Brutalist could surprise.

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Sound

The Best Sound Oscar is shaping up to be a battle between A Complete Unknown and Dune: Part Two. A Complete Unknown stands out for its seamless blend of live musical performances and ambient soundscapes, capturing the essence of Bob Dylan’s world with meticulous detail. However, Dune: Part Two boasts expansive, immersive sound design, continuing the franchise’s legacy of creating a fully realized sci-fi universe through audio. Emilia Pérez, with its music-driven storytelling, also has a shot if voters favour a more unconventional choice. While Dune: Part Two could win based on technical spectacle, A Complete Unknown remains the front-runner for its intimate yet powerful auditory experience.

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Visual Effects

The Best Visual Effects Oscar is heavily favoured to go to Dune: Part Two, which continues the franchise’s tradition of groundbreaking world-building, seamless digital integration, and large-scale sci-fi spectacle. Having already won the BAFTA for Special Visual Effects, it stands as the clear front-runner. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes could pose a challenge with its cutting-edge motion capture and photorealistic creatures, while Alien: Romulus also brings impressive creature effects and atmospheric design to the race. However, given its critical acclaim and technical innovation, Dune: Part Two remains the likely winner.

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International Feature Film

Leading the pack is “Emilia Pérez”, which has made history with 13 nominations, the most ever for a non-English-language film, including Best Picture. This French production has garnered widespread acclaim for its storytelling and performances. Another strong contender is Brazil’s “I’m Still Here”, which has also secured a Best Picture nomination, marking a significant achievement for Portuguese-language cinema. Denmark’s “The Girl with the Needle”, Germany’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”, and Latvia’s “Flow” round out the category, each bringing unique narratives and cultural perspectives to the forefront. The competition is fierce, but “Emilia Pérez” stands out as the front-runner in this esteemed lineup.

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Documentary (Feature)

The Best Documentary Feature Oscar is shaping up to be a strong win for No Other Land, which has gained significant momentum for its urgent, deeply personal storytelling about activism and displacement in the West Bank. Its raw, ground-level perspective and emotional impact make it a powerful contender, and with growing international recognition, it now looks like the front-runner. However, Sugarcane, which explores the traumatic history of Indian residential schools, has also been widely praised and could still challenge for the win. While both films tackle important historical injustices, No Other Land seems to have the edge due to its timely political relevance and emotional resonance.

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Documentary (Short Subject)

The Best Documentary Short Oscar is shaping up to favour I Am Ready, Warden, which has gained strong attention for its intimate and powerful portrayal of a death row inmate’s final days. Its emotional weight and ethical themes make it a compelling favourite, as the Academy often leans toward impactful, socially conscious storytelling in this category. However, Incident, with its unique reconstruction of a fatal police shooting, also has a strong chance if voters prioritise innovative storytelling. While the competition is close, the deeply personal and thought-provoking nature of I Am Ready, Warden makes it the film to beat.

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My Results

The final tally for my predictions is 14 out of 22. A bad year for me! Last year, I correctly predicted 17 out of 22 awards; in the previous 3 years, it has been 16, 17 or 18.

This post was updated after the event to show the winners.